Ma chère Marie-Pierre,

A letter from Donald Trump's America, in an attempt to explain the consequences of last week's vote to one of my most cherished overseas friends

Photo by Aaron Burden on Unsplash

As one of my dearest friends (indeed, family!) abroad, you wrote in some distress last week after the outcome of the U.S. election and I feel an obligation to try to explain my country’s very sharp and deliberate turn. 

I shudder to think what your mother might have said about this latest chapter of “America First,” having spent her life so devoted to a country that put saving democracy first in 1944.  I remember she didn’t even tolerate my own criticism of the United States, which had sent so many of its young men across an ocean to liberate Normandy and chase out the German officers who had taken up residence in her childhood home.

There are no simple explanations.  Paraphrasing Oscar Wilde, to lose one election to Donald Trump may be regarded as a misfortune.  To lose two looks like carelessness.

But it is not carelessness when a majority of American voters make a free choice for a person, a management style and a policy agenda they know from just four years ago.  And while Donald Trump won a majority of non-university educated voters, it’s also not the case that most of his supporters were duped or tricked into backing him.  Some mistakenly believe that he can bring back manufacturing jobs and some just love his abrasive style.

Most of his backers, I believe, are decent Americans who simply want  “change” and didn’t believe they would get it from the sitting vice president.  Some didn’t like the fact that the price of eggs had nearly doubled in five years, even if the inflation rate is falling.  Some are deeply frustrated by an economic system that feels rigged against them, and probably with good reasons.  Some don’t like the surge in immigration or the shifts in cultural norms, even if these were cynically manipulated by Trump surrogates.

What now?

Well, at least some of the Trump platform is traditional right-wing stuff: lower taxes and less regulation.  The stock market likes both of these and the bond market is only slightly more nervous about a yawning budget deficit that looks set to grow.

The tough talk of deporting undocumented immigrants is a departure from Republican traditions.  The initial signs are that it will be cruel and disruptive at first, although aggressive tactics may backfire and stiffen resistance in the press, the courts, and ultimately, the hearts of most Americans.

Most troubling to me and perhaps to my good friends like you abroad is just what Trump means this time when he speaks of “America First.”  For all the talk of returning the country to “greatness,” the details sound more petty and selfish. 

Does it really advance U.S. interests to impose tariffs on our closest allies in Europe and impose a peace on Ukraine that will leave the continent less secure?  Will launching a trade war with China while sowing doubts about commitments to Taiwan make the Pacific more stable?  Can endorsing Israel’s current military strategy unequivocally really advance regional calm?

It's surely possible that some of these initiatives might shake things up enough to deliver some early wins.  Last time he was in office, Trump helped secure more European defense spending, raise awareness of China’s excess manufacturing capacity and secure Israel’s recognition by Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates.

But big policy departures bring big geopolitical risks and the hazards only multiply amid the disruption of traditional diplomatic relationships.  Successful diplomacy, security and trade are all about relationships among countries rather than one-off deals.  These misapprehensions together with a well-demonstrated disorderly decision-making process mean we will all have to brace for more uncertainty over the next four years.

Rest assured, however, just as democracies everywhere produce good leaders and bad ones, America’s fundamental institutions remain strong.  If our ties to Europe turn acrimonious, have no doubts that our educational, financial, cultural and business ties across the Atlantic remain as strong as ever.  And for all the ups and downs in the relationship with France, we remain every bit as proud of the soldiers who landed in Normandy just over 80 years ago to liberate the continent from fascists.

If the Marquis de Lafayette is still right that “the happiness of America is intimately connected with the happiness of all mankind,” then we are in for a period of darkness and brooding.  So we must hope he is also right that the United States is still “destined to become the safe and venerable asylum of virtue, of honesty, of tolerance, and quality and of peaceful liberty.”

Je t’embrasse très fort et à bientôt!

Christopher