Regime Change Without a Change of Regime
In Venezuela, there may be less than meets the eye.
For all the shock of a daring extraction and all the rhetoric justifying the latest chapter of U.S. intervention in Latin America, there may be less to the toppling of Nicolas Maduro than meets the eye.
Of course, “Operation Absolute Resolve” is a clear violation of international law, but it’s not going to change the calculus significantly in Beijing over Taiwan or in Moscow over Ukraine. For Xi Jinping, there are still plenty of complicated risks around any decision to assert more control over what he views as a lost province. For Vladimir Putin, it may become a helpful talking point for his foreign ministry as he continues to lob bombs into Kyiv, but he already made his decision.
Amid Donald Trump’s focus on “getting” Venezuelan oil for American companies, global markets don’t seem to think much has changed either. If traders spent much time thinking about vast new reserves coming on the market, it wasn’t visible in the rising price of crude. Any new exports from Venezuela will first require tens of billions of dollars in fresh investment into dilapidated infrastructure. And that’s only after creditors clear a path through the bramble of debt default and asset claims.
As for Venezuela itself, the only real change is that Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, are now in Brooklyn. We don’t yet know the extent of Washington’s conversations with Acting President Delcy Rodriguez before last weekend, but the decision to bet on her is clear. For now, this looks mainly like an effort to find a more pliable leader, not a strategy to restore democracy or install the rightful winner of the last election. Maduro reportedly angered Trump by pretending to negotiate his own exile to Turkey for months. Once it became clear he wasn’t serious, the president approved the operation. Now the task for Rodriguez is to keep the country from unraveling as she strikes a balance between avoiding further U.S. military action and looking like a Washington puppet.
For investors, there’s a scenario in which Rodriguez builds on the current fragile economic stability she has apparently helped bring about in recent years. Government debt prices have surged, but still trade near 40 cents on the dollar. When Trump speaks of “running Venezuela,” he apparently hopes the vague threat of future military action, combined with the promise of removing sanctions, will give Rodriguez enough room for maneuver.
But for Venezuelans wondering what has just happened to their country, many will linger on the fact that Team Maduro, which up until Saturday night very much included Rodriguez herself, remains mostly in place. They will wonder about the rising debt, the continuing corruption, the chaotic politics and the raging inflation. And perhaps a few will ask if you can really hope for regime change if you haven’t changed the regime.