This Week's Chart, Next Week's Markets
"Iran is big" reminder, Japanese GDP, German state elections, U.S. inflation
Just a reminder that Iran is a large and sophisticated country. If you glance at the bonus chart below from our friends at Al Jazeera, you will also note that it’s a highly urban and educated country. It looks all but certain that Iran is about to lose its military capabilities soon, but everything else about its future is up in the air.
Next week, when investors are not staring hard at reports of missile attacks on oil infrastructure, they will be watching this:
Sunday: Japan releases its final estimate for last year’s 4th quarter GDP growth. Anything above current expectations for a mild rebound will fuel expectations for steeper rate hikes.
Monday: Election results from Baden-Wurtenberg, Germany’s third largest state, which will measure current support for Chancellor Merz, his expansive defense plans and his handling of erratic U.S. trade policy.
Wednesday: U.S. Consumer Price Inflation for February should come in close to the January reading of 2.4%, but anything much above that will push back expectations for Fed rate cuts—with or without Kevin Warsh.
Friday: More U.S. inflation readings, with the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index for January. Forecasts hover around 3%, the previous reading, but market reaction will depend much more on whether the Straits are open by then.
