This Week's Chart, Next Week's Markets
China powers ahead, OPEC convenes, New Start expires, ECB sits tight, U.S. jobs cool
Breathtaking bar charts like this don’t come very often. Chinese electrical capacity added in the last four years exceeds the entire installed base of the United States. Most of the new installations are wind and solar, but there were significant additions of thermal coal plants, too. Mostly, it’s a country that doesn’t want to be caught short for the coming boom in AI, robotics and advanced manufacturing.
As for the week ahead, circle these dates:
Monday: OPEC ministers are due to review production targets and compliance as oil prices surge on mounting tensions in Iran.
Monday: Caixin Manufacturing PMI is should come in just above the 50 mark. Anything short of that will trigger further calls for monetary easing.
Thursday: New Start, the last remaining nuclear arms treaty between the United States and Russia, expires
Thursday: The ECB governing council is not expected to announce any rate change, but markets will focus on the odds for rate cuts as President Lagarde interprets the flash inflation reading due out the day before.
Friday: U.S. jobs numbers for January seem likely to come in cooler than last month’s gain of 190,000, but anything above that may drive 10-year yields higher.