Two Cheers for the BRICS!

Even if you don’t want to root for tomorrow's summit, this motley group may yet shape the emerging world order for the better

Photo by PyperA Flow on Unsplash

In one telling, they are the geopolitical equivalent of Thanos and his Black Order bent on destroying Captain America and his crime-fighting Avengers (or think SPECTRE and James Bond). Another view is they more closely resemble a dysfunctional school board with spleen to vent, but little chance of accomplishing much.

In fact, as Capetown hosts the BRICS summit tomorrow, these gatherings deserve more respect and closer attention than they generally get in Western capitals. While much of what unites these disparate powers is their resentment of U.S. dominance, the group still fundamentally backs all the institutional pillars that Washington hopes will frame the emerging world order. Meanwhile, the group’s efforts to speak with a single voice helps moderate the excesses of any single member and this meeting, in particular, will serve to further isolate Russia’s Vladimir Putin. Hardly monumental achievements, perhaps, but still progress in the realm of diplomatic summitry.

First, a word about this emerging order, which still doesn't feel accurately described by the current labels. For all America's power and wealth, few in Washington think they control global events as they would in a truly “unipolar” world. Meanwhile, the "multipolarity" that so many BRICS communiqués and speeches demand often sounds more like anarchy than a bold geopolitical vision. We certainly don’t seem headed for a world of two camps, pitting the “West” against the “rest.”

Even as China’s rise and Russia’s aggression have tightened the bonds among the United States, Europe and key Asian allies, geopolitical interests elsewhere shift rapidly. Beijing brokered fresh diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran, for example, but Washington is managing the rapprochement of the Saudis and Israel.

Nevertheless, amid these dynamic re-alignments, the BRICS style themselves as a counterweight to the G-7 club of rich countries with roughly comparable economic weight (a third of global GDP in purchasing power parity terms) and four times the population (41% vs 10%). First coined famously in 2001 as an investment idea, the countries are, of course, very different. Russia, Brazil and South Africa export commodities, while China and India import them. Brazil, India and South Africa are democracies, while China and Russia are authoritarian. Brazil and South Africa have no nuclear weapons, while the others do.

Yet, BRICS leaders have found it worth their time to gather regularly over the last 15 years and share views on the United States that range from outright hostility (China, Russia) to persistent suspicion (India) to a desire to avoid getting caught up in great power rifts (South Africa, Brazil).

Beyond this, they each have their own reasons for making the trip. China's Xi Jinping has been eager to weave a web of important relationships in a world that seems increasingly hostile to Chinese assertiveness. Narendra Modi, the Indian prime minister, seems intent on keeping the group from becoming yet another vehicle for Beijing’s foreign policy. South Africa and Brazil may just be happy to get privileged access to Xi.

So why cheer?

At least this time, the empty chair in the room may be the most significant outcome. Vladimir Putin has been forced to participate virtually because of an outstanding arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court over the forced deportation for Ukrainian children. While none of the assembled leaders has yet implemented sanctions against Russia, none endorses the Ukraine invasion and Putin's absence will further increase Russia's isolation. (Watch this space, as the G-20 summit convenes in New Delhi on September 9-10 and Putin’s attendance remains uncertain at this writing.)

Another reason to welcome BRICS gatherings is that they may serve to moderate China’s excesses. Of all the countries not closely aligned with the United States, these are the most important for Beijing to keep on side. BRICS diplomacy alone will not deter military action against Taiwan remain if that’s what Beijing chooses, but Xi would have to weigh such a decision against his extensive efforts to woo these powers.

Finally, the group’s joint statements offer regular and explicit support to all of the international organizations that the United States and its allies consider crucial to global stability: the United Nations, the International Monetary Fund, the World Trade Organization, the Paris Climate Accords and the next COP28 and even the G-20 as the "premier multilateral forum in the field of economic cooperation." Much of the motivation here may a similar hope that global institutions may limit what they view as Washington’s capriciousness, but the overall focus is much more about reforming the current order rather than upending it.

Key tests of the group’s coherence lie ahead. This week’s gathering will include discussion of whether to expand the group -- and presumably force the adoption of a new acronym. Nineteen countries attended a BRICS+ summit in Beijing last June and South Africa claims that some 40 countries have either applied for membership or expressed interest in joining. Beijing appears eager to expand participation in an effort to bolster the group’s influence. Brazil, which has apparently been wary of seeing its influence watered down within a tight group, has apparently relented to considering new members.

A more distant milepost will be in further discussions on developing a common currency to undercut the dollar’s dominant role in global finance and skirt Washington’s financial sanctions. The idea is economically preposterous given the wild diversity of the assembled economies, but further discussion might actually encourage marginal reforms.

The fluidity of interests among the world’s largest emerging powers makes this BRICS summit worth a close look, and its potential for moderating bad behavior of some members even makes it worth rooting for. Somewhere more important than a school board and less evil than Thanos.  Hip, hip …