What Vladimir Putin Really Thinks
After one of his very best weeks in a long time, Russia’s leader shares his hopes and fears.
Dear Diary,
I can't believe what a great week I just had!
First, I get a princely welcome in both Riyadh and Abu Dhabi that includes a camel cavalry, a 21-gun salute and a magnificent fighter-jet flyover streaming the colors of the Russian flag. I may still be shunned in most world capitals, but this was a pretty big step back toward the spotlight.
Then, the very same day, my good friend Xi Jinping snubs visiting European leaders who are threatening to punish Chinese companies that ignore sanctions on sales to Russia. Did they really expect him to cave when Ursula von der Leyen and Charles Michel are themselves locked in a bitter feud over Russia policy?
Best of all, American retreat is in sight! Republicans dragging their feet last week over more Ukraine assistance shows just how little appetite the United States really has for a long war. I can see my “land bridge” to Crimea falling into place before my very eyes -- and maybe even more. Even if some money gets approved before their Christmas recess, Joe Biden's promise to back the Ukrainians for "as long as it takes" is now measured in months no matter who wins the American election next November.
And speaking of elections, I can actually feel the momentum for my own campaign for a fifth term as president! I know no one thinks I need momentum when I have an 85% approval rating (which, by the way, is more than twice Biden’s). But in a country like Russia, there are always dangerous political forces roiling beneath even the strongest leader. If I only barely won re-election, the sharks would immediately start circling and I would never make it to my sixth term.
And while it’s true that I control the press and jail anyone brave enough to dissent, the people really do support me and especially the way I’ve restored Russia’s historic stature. No, they don’t like the fighting or the deaths or the shattered relationships with Ukrainian relatives, but they are tired of America and the West pushing Russia around. And I have put a stop to that!
Besides, in spite of all the sanctions and boycotts, the economy’s actually doing pretty well. After shrinking nearly 2% in 2022, we’re on track to grow more than 3% this year. Lots of government spending has kept unemployment low and wages rising, while there’s even a domestic manufacturing boom to replace all the things we aren’t allowed to buy from Europe and America. And we’re still selling lots of oil to India and China and buying most of what we still need to import from the Middle East and China.
Still, I remain a master at playing a weak hand.
Yes, the currency has collapsed another 45% in the last year, inflation is 7.5% and rising, and my central bank may soon hike interest rates to 16%. But these are short-term problems that aren’t going to change the election results next March.
The longer-term problem, if I’m honest, is that we face a rapidly narrowing future. For all the effort I have expended to make Russia a leading global economy, we still face a sanctions regime that will restrict most foreign investment and block access to the latest technology as long as I’m in the Kremlin. And all our best minds have left the country, too.
Meanwhile, major world powers are conspiring at COP-28 to phase out hydrocarbons altogether. That’s hardly realistic, but Beijing seems to be planning for a future with much less oil and gas and we just don’t have much else to sell them. Hell, even the Saudis have a long-term decarbonization plan that takes advantage of their sunshine and beaches. I could argue that I won’t be around to have to really worry about this, but the International Energy Agency is projecting falling hydrocarbon demand starting before 2030 when I’ll still have at least six more years in office.
Still, I remain a master at playing a weak hand.
First, I’m going to cling to China and my friend Xi as long as I possibly can. I don’t love being the junior partner, but at least I’m a partner and I really don’t have any other choice. Second, I’ll keep confounding my Western enemies with cheap cyber interference in their elections and more cultivation of their arch foes from Teheran to Pyongyang. Third, I’ll reinforce my standing at home with an even tighter hand on dissent and double down on my campaign to revive the spirit of Russia’s glorious past!
Truth be told, I can’t really afford more than reviving the spirit of our past. But just like the last week has boosted my own spirits, that may be enough – for now.