What Xi Jinping Is Thinking This Week
The latest entry in the Chinese leader's diary explains his plans for the upcoming meeting with Donald Trump.
Dear Diary,
Everyone’s making a big deal about me sitting down with the American president on Thursday in South Korea, but last week was far more important here in Beijing.
Trump may still be bragging about getting tax cuts through his Congress, but the 15th Five-Year Plan approved at the party plenum gives a “Big Beautiful Boost” to my “China Dream.” That’s my vision for our country to lead the world in artificial intelligence, biotech and everything else, without depending on Western technology.
Even more important, I continued my shake-up of the central committee and the top military brass. I won’t tolerate corruption, but I have also understood the value of a little controlled chaos in the top ranks long before I heard of “the Don.” Meanwhile, I have both the power and the patience to execute my strategy.
As for Trump himself, I think we’ve handled him pretty well since he came back to office. He keeps talking about our “great personal relationship,” but I barely know the guy! I know his type, though. Like most Western politicians, he’s full of bluster and showmanship, and unable to think past his next press conference.
Vladimir, who actually is a friend, tells me there’s a Russian saying about a “blind dog in a sausage factory.” I can’t think of a better description! But sooner or later, even Trump will exhaust himself in his outrage over Harvard admissions, Venezuelan drug boats and Canadian TV commercials.
Meanwhile, his companies are still desperate to do business here! My friends Elon, Tim and Satya can’t help themselves. They’ll keep finding ways to sneak around any export controls one way or another. And look at how Jensen even agreed to pay an export fee so he could keep selling to us. We’d love more access to advanced semiconductors, but we have plenty of ways to tap into the latest the West has to offer.
The short term, of course, is much trickier. We’re still feeling the effects of that real estate collapse and, much as I hate to admit, I do worry about these signs of deflation. I don’t believe we have a problem with “excess capacity,” but we’re going to be in real trouble if the rest of the world turns protectionist.
So, I’m happy to give Trump a little deal, if only to calm the waters. Our teams seem to have worked out something over the weekend. Maybe we’ll offer temporary assurances on rare-earth sales and soybean purchases, and they’ll stop tightening tech restrictions. Maybe we can agree on a brief truce on port fees and student visas, too. I’d even commit to something on fentanyl, although everyone should be clear that it won’t do any good without Americans doing more on addiction treatment.
Actually, I don’t worry so much about the higher tariffs we’ve had over the last few months, because they aren’t hurting us nearly as much as the Americans think. Even though our exports to the U.S. are down 27% from last year, overall exports are up by more than 8%.
And for the next few years, I can handle Trump, because I can match him blow for blow. Besides, he doesn’t really know what he wants from me beyond a deal that he can brag about at his next MAGA rally.
What I do worry about is that he’s only there for the next few years—just halfway through our next Five-Year Plan. We have no idea who will come next, and there’s still so much more to be settled. Democrats are just as hawkish as Republicans, and whoever’s in the Oval Office in January 2029 will surely be more strategic in their thinking. Won’t they?
I have also understood the value of a little controlled chaos in the top ranks long before I heard of “the Don.”
Meanwhile, our countries just aren’t talking about the most critical issues that separate us. Washington has to stop arming Taiwan and start recognizing our rights in the South China Sea. It has to stop encouraging its Korean and Japanese friends to rearm. And will America ever get serious about climate change again?
Anyway, for this week, I am pretty relaxed. We’ll get things back on track just because Trump seems eager for something he can claim as success. It just seems a shame that the world’s two largest countries should be satisfied with the world’s smallest agreement.
My country is nothing if not patient. But if we wait too long to discuss our differences seriously, some of our problems will be too difficult to solve.