All those trade announcements give a false sense of certainty over future tariff levels, as we learned this week. Inflation expectations will continue to edge higher.
To your point about deals not really being deals until the concrete details of those deals are decided and agreed upon, these announced deals are not so much deals as they are representations of deals for public consumption. While it might sound a bit hifalutin and impossibly French for a newsletter focused on trade and finance in the so-called real world, “être” has been completely swallowed by “paraître” in the full blown kayfabe world of our reality TV president. My persistent question remains: what happens when true reality intrudes into the pretend version? A settling of accounts seems inevitable in that sense. Or am I dreaming?
Very good points, and I agree across the board with no "ifs" or "buts". What amuses me is the fact that when it comes to inflation expectations, the Fed seems to live in a different universe. You and I see inflation expectations as a source of concern; Powell insists that they are well-anchored and a source of comfort. Go figure.
To your point about deals not really being deals until the concrete details of those deals are decided and agreed upon, these announced deals are not so much deals as they are representations of deals for public consumption. While it might sound a bit hifalutin and impossibly French for a newsletter focused on trade and finance in the so-called real world, “être” has been completely swallowed by “paraître” in the full blown kayfabe world of our reality TV president. My persistent question remains: what happens when true reality intrudes into the pretend version? A settling of accounts seems inevitable in that sense. Or am I dreaming?
Honi soit qui mal y pense!
And life is but a dream, whatever you think.
Very good points, and I agree across the board with no "ifs" or "buts". What amuses me is the fact that when it comes to inflation expectations, the Fed seems to live in a different universe. You and I see inflation expectations as a source of concern; Powell insists that they are well-anchored and a source of comfort. Go figure.
I vote for you as next Fed chair!