Thank you for your insightful post, which indeed touches on several inconvenient truths for the Republican candidats, assuming he is capable of approaching the issue strategically. However, I have a couple of observations:
Political campaign events: Have you seen any recently? The era of content-driven discourse and reasoned debate seems long gone. Now, it’s all about chants, cheers, slogans, and occasionally bullets. The likelihood that a Trump administration would enact this so-called 'program' is virtually nil.
The economy: This is an immense wildcard in the upcoming election. While Trump's first term deserved some credit, if not only for understanding corporate anxieties about overexposure to China, Biden’s economic policies are harder to evaluate (I am being generous: two glasses of Bordeaux and I will deem them scholastic; give me a mojito and I will tell you what I really think). The economy is showing signs of weakness at a crucial time, and Harris has been notably quiet—when she does speak, her economic stance is cryptic at best. As bizarre as it may seem, Trump's rhetoric about the USD could resonate patriotically, even if it lacks substance.
Foreign relations: We need to move away from the naive notion that nowadays' international diplomacy is a matter of gentle, polite exchanges. We’re facing a highly antagonistic global order, with a counter-alliance of China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, and Pakistan becoming more vocal. Countries like India, Brazil, South Africa, and Saudi Arabia might remain neutral, but the development of alternative payment systems and China’s persistent efforts to internationalize the RMB are weakening the USD’s reserve status - they have been sloppy so far, but at least they are in line with a more antagonistic world. While Trump’s remarks may seem nonsensical, they reflect an acknowledgment of the turbulent and hostile international landscape. Harris must avoid the illusion that we are living in Xanadu.
Very enjoyable post, and your points are spot on. The main weakness of the block party analogy is that "cool" can be a very ephemeral connotation, gone with a sudden change in fashions, whereas the reserve status of a currency rests on structural factors that take much longer to change. Ironic of course to see a politician "defending" the dollar while proposing some policies that would erode its structural attractiveness -- the equivalent of firing the band. On the bright side (for the US), it's all relative, and when you look around you see that the stately old European villa has filled in the pool with mud to save on energy bills, and in China's McMansion half the lights have gone out and the porch looks shaky... Maybe this gives us enough time for our politicians to learn some basic economics...
Thanks Marco! Since so many economists ignore politics, it may be fair game that so many politicians ignore economics. If only there were more sensible analysts like us...
Thank you for your insightful post, which indeed touches on several inconvenient truths for the Republican candidats, assuming he is capable of approaching the issue strategically. However, I have a couple of observations:
Political campaign events: Have you seen any recently? The era of content-driven discourse and reasoned debate seems long gone. Now, it’s all about chants, cheers, slogans, and occasionally bullets. The likelihood that a Trump administration would enact this so-called 'program' is virtually nil.
The economy: This is an immense wildcard in the upcoming election. While Trump's first term deserved some credit, if not only for understanding corporate anxieties about overexposure to China, Biden’s economic policies are harder to evaluate (I am being generous: two glasses of Bordeaux and I will deem them scholastic; give me a mojito and I will tell you what I really think). The economy is showing signs of weakness at a crucial time, and Harris has been notably quiet—when she does speak, her economic stance is cryptic at best. As bizarre as it may seem, Trump's rhetoric about the USD could resonate patriotically, even if it lacks substance.
Foreign relations: We need to move away from the naive notion that nowadays' international diplomacy is a matter of gentle, polite exchanges. We’re facing a highly antagonistic global order, with a counter-alliance of China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, and Pakistan becoming more vocal. Countries like India, Brazil, South Africa, and Saudi Arabia might remain neutral, but the development of alternative payment systems and China’s persistent efforts to internationalize the RMB are weakening the USD’s reserve status - they have been sloppy so far, but at least they are in line with a more antagonistic world. While Trump’s remarks may seem nonsensical, they reflect an acknowledgment of the turbulent and hostile international landscape. Harris must avoid the illusion that we are living in Xanadu.
Thanks for your thoughts. Much to process here, but for the record I’m against Xanadu too.
Very enjoyable post, and your points are spot on. The main weakness of the block party analogy is that "cool" can be a very ephemeral connotation, gone with a sudden change in fashions, whereas the reserve status of a currency rests on structural factors that take much longer to change. Ironic of course to see a politician "defending" the dollar while proposing some policies that would erode its structural attractiveness -- the equivalent of firing the band. On the bright side (for the US), it's all relative, and when you look around you see that the stately old European villa has filled in the pool with mud to save on energy bills, and in China's McMansion half the lights have gone out and the porch looks shaky... Maybe this gives us enough time for our politicians to learn some basic economics...
Thanks Marco! Since so many economists ignore politics, it may be fair game that so many politicians ignore economics. If only there were more sensible analysts like us...